The market turned around somewhat and the stocks went down in the last
month, but nowhere near where they were when I bought them, so I'm
still making 50% on my investment after only three months.
I figured that with these two giants and with the money the
government loaned them in the
Stimulus Package to avoid bankruptcy,
that they'd eventually move back up considerably from the low to high
one dollar range at which I bought them. In particular, because Citi
was selling for $27 last year and $56 the year before, and AIG had a
price of $31 last year and over $70 a couple of years ago. Slow and
steady, the economy is improving and with patience I think I'll be
proven right.
However, my beef with AIG is with the recent proxy statement they
sent through my broker for the Stockholders Meeting this coming
Tuesday, June 30, wherein, among other things, they want to do a
reverse stock split of 1:20, meaning that if you had 1,000 shares
you'll wind up with fifty. If you had ten thousand shares you'll have
500. They will initially multiply the share value by a like amount, so
you won't lose any equity, but your chances of growing your investment
have become pretty slim.
The insurance company's rationale is that, because their stock is
valued so low -- it just sold for $1.46 -- it has lost institutional
investors, many of which will not buy a stock that is priced under five
dollars. But worst, they ominously warn, if the stock falls below a
dollar as it did up until a couple of months ago, the New York Stock
Exchange may delist them. The fact that the stock rose to over two
dollars and has never declined below the mid one dollar range in over
two months would appear to make this concern overstated.
However, what mostly bothers me as a small-time investor is that by
reducing the number of shares by one twentieth, if the company prospers
to a much higher level of equity, the shareholders will not see their
investments grow nearly as much because the increases of the share
prices would have to rise at astronomical rates per day or week to
effect the same profit margin. For example, if -- to round things out
-- the share numbers are cut by twenty, they will raise the price from
$1.50 to $30. It is much more reasonable to expect that the $1.50 might
rise to, let's say $20 eventually -- considering the heights from which
it previously fell -- than for a $30 stock to get to $600 a share,
which it would have to achieve for someone with fifty shares to reap
the same results as the person who originally had one thousand shares
if the stock climbs to $20.
Plus, with an inflated price of $30 and considering the recent
economic struggles of AIG, how many institutional brokers are going to
want to pay that much for a company not yet back on sound footing? What
I find interesting is that, in the proxy statement, the Board of
Directors does not warn against this risk. They only tell you the
reasons they want to reverse split the stock, and cover themselves
slightly with "In addition, the reverse stock split may not increase
the price of AIG Common Stock or may not lead to a sustained increase
in the price of AIG Common Stock, which would prevent AIG from
realizing some of the anticipated benefits of the reverse stock split."
Interestingly they don't spell out the real danger, which is that the
stock would now have greater room to free fall and the shareholder
would have much fewer shares to cushion the blow.
Then, to top it off, they go on -- amazingly with a bit of cheek, I
think -- to say "the reverse stock split may not result in a stock
price that will attract investment funds or institutional investors or
satisfy the investment guidelines of investment funds or institutional
investors." But wasn't that one of their prime enticements to do this?
Is this a shell game they're putting before us?
Not to mention another desired goal is to increase the potential or
"authorized" shares of common stock by another five billion or so,
which, if ultimately sanctioned by the Board, would dilute everyone's
shares still further.
And, as stated, the Board of Directors doesn't at all address the
realities as stated above that the gross reduction in shares for each
stockholder provides much fewer possibilities for upward movement each
day. Wells Fargo which sells at the mid-twenty dollar range only went
up 7 cents today. AIG and Citigroup have done that many times and more
from a vantage point of $1.50 and $3.00. IBM, which sells for $105 went
down 38 cents today. Sometimes it shoots up or goes down a few dollars,
but my point is that the market is such that the movement of a stock
suddenly priced at thirty dollars is not going to generally move up and
down proportionally to its previous price, and with fewer shares you
have much less room to grow.
I bought AIG at $1.15 and within a month it shot up to over $2 --
that's almost double. How fast do you think AIG will go from $30 to
$60, barring an amazing stock story? And yet the Board of Directors,
who will probably win this fight, because there were no opposing
statements on the Proxy Ballot and no negative publicity on NBC, CBS,
ABC, CNN, CNBC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Today Show, Facebook,
You Tube, Twitter or anywhere in the press that I've seen, will have
achieved a sleight of hand, which will not only hurt me but, much
worse, the many stock holders who bought the stock at much higher rates
before it plummeted.
Those folks, who bought AIG at fifty bucks or seventy bucks and had
a few thousand shares or so, then saw the price go below a dollar, have
held on and continue to hope for some sort of a recovery. What chance
do they have if their 10,000 shares are reduced to only five hundred?
If anyone has AIG stock and has not yet voted or has a chance to do
so, I would absolutely urge them to vote this reverse stock split down
and also the attempt to issue five billion more common shares. But
remember the proxy has to be voted before 11:59 p.m. Monday night, June
29.
For the future, I'd suggest that if some kind of a reverse split is
necessary to ensure NYSE listing that it be limited to 1:3 or 1:4 to
get the price over the five dollars needed to lure institutional funds
back into play. This 1:20 split smells -- to me -- a bit too rancid for
the ordinary shareholders, not to mention the U.S. public who are
hoping to recover their investment.
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